Literary Second Order Confluence

(LSOC)

LSOC is a complex plausibility problem and unlike the Prophecy Problem or BGDRR it is ALWAYS a bad thing.  There is no such thing as an acceptable LSOC.  LSOC is confusing enough that I have explained it on a separate page. For a detailed explanation of LSOC and plausibility in general click here to read "Towards a Theory of Plausibility." On this page you will find a list of Literary Second Order Confluences (LSOC) that I have collected from modern television and movies.  I present it as a exposé for scriptwriters to be more careful about their material regarding plausibility.  For what it is worth, there is some spoiler material below for those who have not seen the shows I refer to.  (Another form of plausibility error is Incongruous Behavior.)

#1 Law and Order: Criminal Intent

#2 Law and Order

#3 The Fifth Element

#4 All Revved Up

#5 Bullworth

#6 The Hobbit

#7 Law and Order: Special Victims Unit

#8 NEGATIVE EXAMPLE Training Day NEGATIVE EXAMPLE

#9 Changing Lanes

#10 Memento

#11 Spider-Man

#1. Law and Order: Criminal Intent

Episode "Poison". 

The Independent Confluences: In this story there is a nurse who is poisoning patients in her ward so she can revive them and attain acclaim as a heroine nurse. However the detectives are called to the ward to investigate a death by poison of a man whose wife killed him with a tainted bottle of painkillers.  The first confluence, FOC#1 is the fact that the victim's wife is a "product tamper".  The second , FOC#2,  is that the  nurse is an "angel of death" (with a twist, since she doesn't really kill anyone).  It is very easy to see that FOC#1 and FOC#2 are completely independent because the nurse and the murderous wife are completely non-connected.

The Problem: The writers here want us to believe that while investigating a death in the hospital ward due to the extremely rare product tamperer the detectives stumbled across an equally rare angel of death who happens to be working in the same ward.  Here we have two INDEPENDENT criminals who know nothing about each other that seem to be working the same ward.  It is almost comic.  You can imagine a scene where the product tamperer slinks around a corner and bumps into the angel of death and says "Hey - go find your own ward!"  This is LSOC because we have two independent extremely rare crimes occurring at the same time and place without any particular explanation as to why they would be happening together.  

The Author's Intent: As usual this Law and Order episode has a twist involved.  The twist comes when we learn that the nurse, although arrested for her criminal activity, was not the killer that the detectives originally sought.  The FOC of the product tamperer is intended to provide the story with a victim.  The FOC of the "angel of death" is there to provide a distraction.  Two independent FOCs with two different purposes define an LSOC. The nurse was a literary decoy while the real killer was the product tampering wife.  The LSOC was inadvertently added to the story in order to create a diversion and fill the hour, however it lead to complete implausibility: two extremely rare criminal events simultaneously occurring in the same ward of a hospital.

#2 Law and Order

Episode ACCESS NATION

The Independent Confluences: Tracy Conley is the victim of a murder plot by a paroled rapist, FOC#1.  However what the synopsis does not say is that she is also the victim of a COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT criminal plot of armed robbery arranged by a young girl Tracy is mentoring, FOC#2.  The reason that these two events are independent is because the paroled rapist and the young girl have no contact in the story and are altogether unrelated in any way.

The Problem:    A story can be plausibly be written about a woman who has a criminal plot against her, but for the same woman to have two entirely independent criminal plots against her is not plausible.  This is a good example of how important the concept of independence is to a case of LSOC.  If this woman were the D.A. then we could imagine more than one criminal plotting against her in revenge. Unfortunately even if our psychologist was a D.A. a plot by a criminal would still be independent from a plot by a troubled young girl.  To be plausible we would need two criminals plotting against her.

 However, the way "Access Nation" was written is unusually bad.  It is also absolutely key that these two criminal plots came to a climax at EXACTLY the same time.  By definition, the timelines of two independent criminal plots can have no particular correlation, yet the only way this story works is because both plots manifest themselves the same evening, indeed within the same hour! Tracy was robbed by one person then murdered by another entirely independent person at precisely the same time.  So even if the two independent conspiracies could be made plausible (by changing Tracy to a character that might reasonably have several plots against her, like a judge or D.A.) it would STILL be a case of LSOC because there is no reason that these independent schemes would peak at the same instant.

The Author's Intent: As before, Law and Order desperately needed to write a distraction for the detectives and provide an exciting twist for the viewers.  It works only if you don't care that the story be plausible. FOC number one provides the basis of the overall crime, FOC number two is there to provide a distraction and complication preventing a straightforward investigation by Briscoe and Green.

#3 The Fifth Element

The Synopsis: This wonderfully cast and beautifully executed science fiction story is about Korben, a former military stud (Bruce Willis), who now works as a cabbie but is called back to active duty in order to prevent evil from taking over everything.  Korben teams up with the "supreme being", a young woman named Leeloo (Milla Jovovich), in order to prevail.

The Independent Confluences: Korben is a former Special Forces Major who is uniquely trained for the mission that is central to the story.  Of all the people on hyper-populated future Earth, he is the one they turn to to protect the "supreme being" Leeloo.  Korben's training is the first FOC, the one that drives the story forward. FOC#1 is what makes Korben special.  However it turns out that though a completely independent chain of events, Korben has ALREADY MET and fallen in love with Leeloo. This early encounter between the two is FOC#2.  He is currently a down and out cabbie that just happened to be in the right place at the right time to rescue Leeloo from a fix BEFORE he was assigned any mission.

The Problem: After Korben delivers the "Supreme Being"  to a screwy religious fanatic with his taxicab his connection with her, which was entirely random to begin with, is now completely severed only to be INDEPENDENTLY revived by the people who decide to reactivate his military status so he can protect her.  This is LSOC in its cleanest form.

The Author's Intent:  In this case the writers wanted to establish a firm romantic interest for Korben in Leeloo.  Unfortunately they had to lean on profound implausibility to have them meet before the forces of the story swept Korben up to action.  The purpose of FOC#1 is to create a condition by which Korben is sent off on an adventure.  FOC#2 is there to establish romantic tension.

#4 All Revved Up

The Synopsis: A lovely school teacher (Lili Taylor) finds herself the victim of a scam artist, a garage owner who delights in ripping off his customers. Soon, she has two eager young men (John Turturro and Will Patton), her neighbor and his friend, on her side to help her exact revenge on the sleazy mechanic, who is the leader of a stolen car ring. It's not long before romance kindles, and violence flares in this funny and exciting high-performance ride! (From IFilm. This is the only positive review I saw about this film...)

The Independent Confluences: FOC#1: Lili Taylor gets involved with a mechanic who scams her out of money and is running a car-theft ring.  FOC#2: Her buddy INDEPENDENTLY gets into a brawl with two members of the same ring. 

The Problem: Well, its obvious isn't it?  It is implausible that you or your buddy get involved with any criminal gang, but to accidentally get involved with the SAME gang through completely independent issues is utterly implausible. In fact most people who see this movie find it utterly confusing and the LSOC is why.  This is rare.  Most LSOC sneak up on viewers and often never get detected.  In fact in every case I know the LSOC would be corrected by the writer if they saw it and understood the problem.  This one seems so obvious and ugly that it affected the reviews and it seems inconceivable that no-one noticed it during production.

The Author's Intent:  Gosh, this one is anybody's guess.  There really was no need for this LSOC except perhaps to make lots of characters in you script interact before the actual climax of the story. 

#5 Bullworth

The synopsis: A suicidal and disillusioned liberal politician puts a contract out on himself and takes the opportunity to be bluntly honest with his voters.

Actually I can't remember exactly what the problem was with this film regarding LSOC, but I remember there being a pretty big problem.  I will watch it again and check.  There were other plausibility issues, regardless, beyond LSOC.  One that I do remember was the feasibility of Halle Berry getting such a personal contact with Bullworth on her mission to kill him. 

#6 The Hobbit

The Synopsis: A small human-like creature gets sent on a hopeless mission to slay a far-away dragon by an eccentric wizard.  During this adventure he accidentally finds a magical item that protects him and make the entire otherwise impossible adventure a success.

The Independent Confluences:  FOC#1: A simple-minded Hobbit named Bilbo is inexplicably sent by Gandalf the wizard with a company of dwarves to slay a dragon. FOC#2: During the journey and ENTIRELY INDEPENDENTLY of the intent of Gandlalf this Hobbit finds a mysterious ring that allows him to become invisible.  This ring alone makes it possible for the mission to succeed.

The Problem: The story starts out like any adventure would: a bunch of characters on a mission with a half baked plan.  However it is immediately evident that there is NO possible way for them to succeed without a lot of help from Gandalf, who eventually abandons them in order to explore southern Mirkwood (which later in the Trilogy we learn is where Sauron has been living).  However the mission does succeed because this poor hapless Hobbit stumbles on the Ring of Power and that gives him supernatural abilities to help his dwarf company out of several otherwise impossible situations.  We are given every reason to believe that Bilbo's discovery of the ring was COMPLETELY ACCIDENTAL in which case it is an LSOC when combined with the arbitrary choice of Gandalf to send Bilbo on the mission in the first place.   This would not have been a problem if Gandalf told them about the ring and had them acquire it first, or even if Gandalf GAVE them the ring, but to be inexplicably sent on a bizarre and rare mission and then to INDEPENDENTLY find a rare artifact unrelated to the mission is LSOC.  This example proves that LSOC can happen in completely fantasy realities.  The point is that logic and plausibility can not be violated in ANY story.  This example also points out how subtle LSOC can be.  Perhaps no-one has ever noticed this point, but nonetheless it is there.

The Author's Intent: Tolkien wrote himself into a corner.  FOC#1, Bilbo's association with an eccentric wizard, establishes a reason for a humble Hobbit to uncharacteristically go on a dangerous journey.  FOC#2, the discovery of the One Ring was intended to provide Bilbo with a means of survival. He had a witless troop of dwarves and a hapless Hobbit, there is no way they could continue on an adventure without something ad hoc to keep them alive.  He invented a magical ring for the purpose of making the story possible but delivered it to his main character in an entirely implausible way.  Weather Tolkien intended this ring to be of more fundamental significance for future work is anybody's guess.

I actually interpret this LSOC as an indication that Tolkien was implying that greater forces were at work and that Gandalf knew that Hobbits were extremely special and Gandalf was "experimenting" with Bilbo.  He sent Bilbo off knowing that fate would protect him, somehow. To avoid the LSOC Gandalf must have had some knowledge that can plausibly connect Bilbo to the Ring or some indication that Bilbo's security was assured.  However there is no direct evidence in the entire trilogy to that effect.  Gandalf merely implies that Hobbits are special and never provides and explanation of what he means or how he knows this.  Ironically Gandalf's "experiment" imperils all of Middle Earth when the Ring resurfaces. 

#7 Law and Order : SVU

The Synopsis:  SURVEILLANCE    03/08/02

OBSESSED FAN KEEPS MUSICIAN IN HIS SIGHT - The brutal attack of a young cellist, Cassie Germaine (guest star Emily Deschanel) in her apartment leads Detectives Benson (Mariska Hargitay) and Stabler (Christopher Meloni) to investigate her orchestra conductor Robert Prescott (guest star Michael Nader, "All My Children"). The relationship between the two, coupled with Prescott's penchant for amateur erotic filmmaking, causes suspicion when a scan of the victim's apartment reveals a series of hidden cameras recording her every move. But the detectives soon realize that the invasion of Germaine's home is the work of a dedicated stalker determined to spend his life watching the object of his desire. Dann Florek, Richard Belzer, Ice-T and Stephanie March also star. TV-14

The Independent Confluences:  In this episode we meet a beautiful young cellist who is being stalked by a truly twisted young man.  The fact that a cellist is being stalked is entirely reasonable as it is  to suspect him after she is attacked and beaten.  This is "FOC #1".  However this stalker has started a relationship with his landlord that, presumably, he rationalizes by telling himself that he needs to get a break on the rent so he can be near his "real" girlfriend.  It turns out, COMPLETELY INDEPENDENTLY that his landlord is just as crazy as he is and that she becomes obsessive of her lover tenant and jealous of the cellist.  This is "FOC #2".  

The Problem:  The problem is that this script basically has a stalker being stalked by another stalker.  It is presumed that the landlord would be obsessive independently of the fact that her boyfriend was obsessive.  Unless there are a LOT of wacky stalkers out there or that they met in someway that would place lots of stalkers in the same place, this is an implausible story. 

The Author's Intent: As with the other Law and Order Episodes mentioned here, the authors were looking for a way to make the plot twist one final time before the end.  FOC#1 is present to provide a principle suspect, the obsessed fan.  FOC#2 is intended to provide a real criminal and a final plot twist. Two independent FOCs with different purposes equals one LSOC. LSOC occasionally sneaks up on writers when that last twist needs to be unanticipated and yet not come "out of the blue".  It is not "out of the blue" because the criminal is a character that we have met already, but in a way it is still "out of the blue" because we already have a stalker in the story.  Technically the landlady was not a stalker, but her obsession with her tenant is still a FOC.

#8 NEGATIVE EXAMPLE Training Day NEGATIVE EXAMPLE

Synopsis: This movie tracks the events of the first day on the job of a rookie cop (Hawke) working in the Los Angeles Police Department's undercover narcotics unit. His partner is Alonzo, a corrupt veteran cop (Washington). (Mendes plays Denzel's wife; Dr. Dre plays a cop)who has spent WAY to much time on the streets and who is in trouble with the Russian organized crime.

The Independent Confluences:  FOC #1: Sometime in the early part of the day Hawke happens to see a girl getting assaulted in an alley and prevents what would likely have been a rape.  Later, Alonzo (Denzel Washington) decides that he has needs to kill Hawke and takes him to a thug that he knows to do the job "Smiley" (played by Cliff Curtis, pictured below in another role).  But this thug turns out to be the cousin of the previously assaulted girl and spares Ethan's life as repayment of street debt.  The fact that this thug was the cousin of the girl is FOC#2.

The Problem:  Well, there is only a problem if the assault is independent of Alonzo's choice of assassin.  Of all the thugs Alonzo could have chosen why did he choose this particular one? On the surface it seems that the likelihood that Alonzo chose the thug he did is unaffected by the fact that Ethan prevented the assault earlier in the day.  But if one examines the assault scene carefully one realizes that the girl screams at the thugs that her cousin is a big man on the streets and she yells out his name, "Smiley", threateningly.   Alonzo knows this guy very well, he knows everybody it seems.  So we can not disregard the possibility that when it came time for Alonzo to choose his assassin that somehow his choice was tainted by the fact that he heard his name earlier in the day. Perhaps he would have leveraged the fact that he saved his cousin from assault in case the thug declined to do the job on Ethan.  Regardless, we need to give the benefit of the doubt to the writers here and hold out the possibility that these two events were not independent.

The Author's Intent:  The author needed a way for Ethan's basic goodness to deflect otherwise certain death and yet the writer's did not want to write an "unbelievable scene" where Ethan just cleverly uses some James Bond Tactic to escape his captors.  This movie is not a simple action film, so such a scene would not make sense. Ironically in order to avoid ONE implausible storyline ( a clever escape ), they almost introduced  implausibility via LSOC, but lucky for them that shred of non-independence spared them.

#9 Changing Lanes

Synopsis: A suspense thriller in NYC where two individuals from very different walks of life collide on the F.D.R. and subsequently escalate their relationship into a desperate feud.

The Independent Confluences:  The first confluence is the collision.  Two characters literally experience a confluence when their cars collide in a minor traffic accident.  Inadvertently the character played by Ben Afleck leaves behind a document at the scene that is critical to the future of himself and his firm.  FOC#2 happens a short time later when the two bad drivers happen to meet again somewhere else in the city. 

The Problem:  The subsequent meeting is completely independent of the fact that they had an accident but it is critical to the story.  Thus this story depends on the confluence of two confluences and we have an LSOC.  Although this LSOC is obvious, credit goes to CNN movie critic  Paul Clinton for first mentioning and complaining about this in his CNN Review of the movie.  Basically the first meeting, the wreck, establishes the fact that Afleck really needs to meet Jackson again, but he has no way to do so.  Then he just happens to see him shortly thereafter.  The movie makes it seem that this meeting is completely plausible, but in fact it is the chance encounter of two random people in a very large city.  Although such chance encounters do happen, they do not happen when they NEED to happen.  Paul Clinton describes it this way:

Meanwhile, Banek [Aflleck] doesn't know he has left behind an important legal file at the scene of the accident. He not only needs the file to win an important case, but it could mean the difference between making millions of dollars for his firm or being charged with criminal conduct.

Gipson[Jackson] has found the file, but at first does not know its importance. Then, in a scene that defies any type of reality -- one of the movie's missteps -- Banek just happens to run into Gipson on the street of one of the world's biggest cities, and begs him for the file. Gipson, in the depths of despair, basically tells him to go to hell.   

                                                        Paul Clinton, CNN movie critic

The Author's Intent:  Pretty simple here, if these guys are going to feud they have got to be in contact.  In order to be in contact they need to meet after the accident.  

#10 Memento

Synopsis: A art-house suspense thriller about a Lenny, a former insurance investigator,  who has lost the ability to form new memories and is searching for his wife's killer.  His condition is caused by one of his wife's killers smashing him on the head.  I need to point out right away that this was a wonderful film and the presence of LSOC has very little effect on the movie quality.  However LSOC is a unambiguous state of implausibility regardless of the movie context so I am obligated to point it out.

The Independent Confluences:  Lenny's life as an insurance investigator crossed paths with a man named "Sammy" who was faking an unusual mental illness in order to claim benefits.  Although we can not trust Lenny's detailed retelling of his interaction with Sammy, there is good script-based reason to believe that Sammy was real and that Lenny did in fact debunk and disqualify his claim.  This is confluence #1.  The second confluence that interests us here is Lenny's affliction.  Lenny damages his hippocampus due to a blow by an attacker that broke into his home. The resulting fact that Lenny now suffers from a brain disorder whereby he can not form new memories is confluence #2: the intersection of his life with a very rare disorder.  Be very careful to note that the fact that Lenny came down with his condition (#2) is completely independent of his interaction with the fraudulent Sammy.  In other words the probability that Lenny would come down with his affliction is made no greater by having worked a case involving a man who was faking this same rare affliction.

The Problem/The Author Intent:  Imagine your teacher tells you to write  a very long and intensely detailed report on a very rare disease.  Then, after you are finished, you learn that you have that very disease!  Such a pair of events is quite unlikely, though not quite LSOC.  In Lenny's case however it is critical for the sake of the story that he do a "report" on the rare disease before he independently gets the disease himself. The necessity of both these independent confluences is what makes this a case of LSOC.   Lenny's affliction is extremely rare and a great idea for a story.  However in order for this story to unfold as the director wants Lenny must have a profound understanding of his own affliction.  The problem is that the nature of his affliction is such that Lenny can not develop such an understanding after he gets the affliction!  The only way the script can be self-consistent is to somehow provide Lenny with a detailed understanding of this memory affliction before he actually gets it.  The only way to do is is via two independent events that MUST happen.  That is LSOC.  I do want to repeat that this was a good movie regardless because this complaint is overwhelmed by the good aspects of the film, nevertheless the story is officially implausible in an absolute and unambiguous way due to the LSOC.

One interesting interpretation of this LSOC is that Lenny was not physically unable to create new memories but mentally ill instead.  This is what the afflicted Lenny claims was the case with Sammy, but there is reason to doubt his account.  In order to create a dependence between Lenny's experience with Sammy and Lenny's affliction we now assume that his mental illness was triggered by the break-in when his wife was attacked and the form it took was to mimic the same symptoms that Sammy was displaying.  I do not support this theory, but you can see how the presence of LSOC would naturally lead one to look for a dependence because the alternative, independence, is so implausible.

#11 Spider-Man 

Synopsis: A high school student named Peter Parker gets bitten by a presumably radioactive research spider and absorbs spider genes into his own genome.  He becomes spider like and fights crime.  His first real super-villain is the Green Goblin, who happen to be his best friend's father. 

The independent confluences:  Peter Parker's genesis into Spider-Man was a unlikely confluence of himself with a radioactive research spider.  Around the same time the Green Goblin is created in a defense research laboratory by an unlikely accident, the confluence of an ambitious scientist with a dangerous chemical.  As usual we emphasize the point that the probability of Green Goblin genesis is absolutely unaffected by the occurrence of Spider-Man genesis. 

The Problem/The Author Intent:   The fact that two super-humans exist at the same time is not the problem.  In a world where biology is easily manipulated perhaps we should expect many superheros.  The fact that Spider-Man and the Green Goblin come into conflict is not the problem.  It seems likely that two super-powered people in the same city would eventually get to know each other. The problem is that these two people ALREADY knew each other and in fact were extremely close friends.  Thus the situation is a confluence of confluences: two super-human geneses must come together to make this story unfold the way it did.  The necessity of Spider-Man and the Green Goblin being close in their civilian mode is due to the scriptwriter's requirement that the Green Goblin be able to figure out Spider-Man's secret identity.  They wanted some tense scenes with Peter Parker and his best friend's father together so the audience can enjoy the idea that at the same table were two arch enemies but they didn't know it.  However in order to set up such a scene the had to resort to an LSOC.

Do you have an example of LSOC?  If so send it to me for evaluation and I will add it to the list and credit you as the discover!