Vladi Chaloupka, Professor of Physics, Adjunct Professor in Music, University of Washington
Jan. 13 / March 10, 2004     vladi@u.washington.edu     http://www.phys.washington.edu/~vladi

(Lecture Notes for an invited talk at an interdisciplinary lecture series with a premise: Building a sustainable future depends on restructuring the global economy, major shifts in human reproductive behavior, and dramatic changes in values and lifestyles. If we do not accomplish this restructuring within the next three decades, environmental deterioration and economic growth are likely to feed on each other, pulling us into a downward spiral of social disintegration. All speakers were asked to evaluate the premise (see below). See also the section on What can we do, as well as the section on What can YOU [i.e. the students] do: a suggestion to consider establishing a UW Chapter of Student PUGWASH USA.)

Exuberance I: LISA: Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, listening to the Gravitational Symphony of the Universe (see the official page at http://lisa.jpl.nasa.gov/ and many interesting links at the bottom of http://www.cco.caltech.edu/~esp/ ). Three satellites, separated by 3,000,000 miles from each other, will orbit the Sun. Changes of their separation less then an atomic diameter(!) will be detected, to signal the passage of a gravitational wave. Somewhat incomprehensibly, human spirit is able to reach 10 billion light years into the Universe, and measure what happened 0.000,000,000,1 seconds after the Big Bang! Pure joy - and pure exuberance, since this is beautiful and profound ("listening to the Gravitational Symphony of the Universe, complete with orchestra and soloists ..."), but absolutely useless.

Exuberance II: Quantum Mechanics: the Central Mystery illustrated by the double-slit experiment: if you open slit 2, particles will stop arriving at point A! (Feynman's Lectures on Physics I 37-2: ...."phenomenon which is impossible, absolutely impossible to explain in any classical way, and which has in it the heart of quantum mechanics."). And yet, somewhat incomprehensibly again, human spirit seems able to 'comprehend' and exploit this mystery! Therefore: exuberance indeed, but no longer pure: the science is useful and powerful, and this brings worries: nuclear physics / accidents / waste / weapons/...)

Exuberance III: Molecular Biology / Genetic Engineering. Example: Ribosomes - not Biochemistry but, in a sense, Physics: incredible molecular machines translating the information from a chain (RNA) composed of 4 different nucleotides into chains (proteins) composed of 20 different aminoacids. You really must see an animation of an aminoacyl tRNA synthetase charging a particular tRNA molecule with the corresponding aminoacid, to fully appreciate the wonder of Molecular Biology! And there seem to be no limits to what we can do: redesign plants, clone animals, cure diseases, …. Mind-boggling and exuberant indeed, but with the enormous range of far-reaching, practical, desirable applications come commensurate possibilities of misuse, both intentional and accidental.

The coexistence of promise and peril from any technology is nothing new. However, recent progress has created a deep and urgent problem which never existed before:

The underlying question of stability of systems can be illustrated by a metaphor: children, with matches, in a gas depot. In his recent book Our Final Hour, Sir Martin Rees (British Astronomer Royal) estimates the odds of Civilization surviving the 21st century to be 50/50!

• Exuberance must be accompanied by Humility, Precaution and Foresight

=> Series of Lectures and Seminars on Foresight in Science: (plus individual Independent Study programs):

from Fall 2001:H A&S 220: Natural Science for an Informed Citizen
from Winter 2000: HA&S 350: Can Science and Technology Kill Us All?
Spring 2002:PHYS535/PHIL501/ZOOL523 /ENVIR535: Foresight in Science and Technology: Choices and Consequences
Details on these courses are at http://www.phys.washington.edu/~vladi (especially the annotated reading list). For an overview of the issues see http://www.phys.washington.edu/~vladi/Honors2001/janus7.html
and for connection to current events: http://www.phys.washington.edu/~vladi/iraq.html

From the description of PHYS535/PHIL501/ZOOL ...:
This Seminar is an interdisciplinary inquiry into the ever-increasing gap between the cumulative, exponential progress in science and technology on the one hand, and on the other hand, the lack of comparable progress in our ability to use our new technological tools thoughtfully and responsibly. The wide impact of the Wired article by Bill Joy illustrates the need for re-examination of the foresight (or rather: the lack of it) with which we practice Science, and with which we use Technology. The goal is to create a truly interdisciplinary enrollment at the graduate level, with participation from students from Science disciplines as well as from the Humanities. Research-quality term paper will be required from all students. The enrollment will be not limited to students of the "sponsoring" Departments - the idea is to encourage the participation of all students who are interested in these issues, and who are qualified to contribute their skills and knowledge of their fields to this inquiry - we will not hesitate to talk about Philosophy (Philosophy of Science in particular), policy and politics, economy and Religion, and - for good measure - about Music.

example of differing attitudes:

Bill Joy (co-founder and chief scientist of the Sun corp.): The 21st-century technologies - genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR) - are so powerful that they can spawn whole new classes of accidents and abuses. Most dangerously, for the first time, these accidents and abuses are widely within the reach of individuals or small groups. They will not require large facilities or rare raw materials. Knowledge alone will enable the use of them .... Thus we have the possibility not just of weapons of mass destruction but of knowledge-enabled mass destruction.

vs. James Watson (Nobel prize winner for discovery of double-helix-structure of DNA): Never postpone experiments that have clearly defined future benefits for fear of dangers that can't be quantified. ..... we can react rationally only to real (as opposed to hypothetical) risks. .... .... you should never put off doing something useful for fear of evil that may never arrive.

For physicists, it may be of some interest to retrace the curious exchange involving Czech Playwright/President Vaclav Havel and an Editorial by Professor Kleppner in Physics Today - see www.phys.washington.edu/~vladi/Honors2001/modern.html . In general, Physics is very much relevant to these issues, both in its substance and in its history. We did not do well with Nuclear Physics, where the problems are much better understood that in case of biotechnology, and it seems we have not learned much from our mistakes!

[ ] The recent radical transformation of US policies came at the worst possible time, when we should be using all the power we have, and all the wisdom we like to believe we have, to deal with a deep, urgent problem unlike any we have encountered before. Instead, our policies are making the problem, almost hopelessly complex to start with, even much more difficult to address and solve.

[ ] The present military dominance of the USA, overwhelming as it is, is only temporary. Science and technology, which enabled our superiority in the first place, will provide, in historically short time, some very powerful and de-stabilizing equalizers. We should be taking advantage of our current power and strength to prepare for the transition, to reform and strengthen international institutions, in order to achieve a new world order which would be stable without excessive limitations on democracy and human rights. Instead, we are not only humiliating our enemies, but we are even antagonizing our friends. This is not a farsighted attitude towards the fundamental changes which are coming with the inevitability of laws of Physics.

[ ] Not only the military, but also the general economic, scientific and technological dominance of the USA is not sustainable - not just from the point of view of natural resources, but due to its very foundation. Our success is based on the historical accident of a relatively virgin land with limitless opportunities, thereby determining the dynamic nature of its population. This is continuously rejuvenated by continuous brain/talent/drive drain (20 million immigrants absorbed in the last two decades) fed in a loop by the continuing success. This phenomenon is not sustainable - it will collapse should the rejuvenation cease (either because other countries become competing destinations, or because our policies will discourage the inflow ...). This should provide additional motivation for doing, urgently, the best with our power while it lasts. Also, it means that the US is not like any other nation, and it is not possible for all or even most nations to become like the US. This should be considered before we try to export the "American model" - be it export by example, by persuasion, by threats or by force …

1) Education: increase public awareness of the scope, and of the urgency, of the Basic Problem. But even scientists disagree on dangers their disciplines represent ... see above.

2) Research on Risk Assessment: Recall just 3% of Genome Project budget spent on ELSI (Ethical, Legal and Social Issues - and you can guess where most of these 3% went...), vs. the $/$ proposal of Ray Kurzweil. We need a professional, dedicated, peer-reviewed Department of Foresight at every major University and National Laboratory (for a proposal in the same direction, see Kurzweil again). Since the amount of money spent on total research is unlikely to increase much, this will result into a slowing down the "actual research progress" - not as an intentional "relinquishment" but rather as a byproduct of an intense and serious research into the possible consequences of our actions. As many of the issues involve the "human element", these studies cannot be performed by the "hard sciences" alone - there must be cooperation with Political Sciences, with experts modeling complex systems including people (such as practiced by economists), with the participation of Law schools, and even Humanities as such.

3) Strengthening of International Law to be commensurate with the severity of problems we are facing: this is not a US priority at this time (cf the attitude of the atomic physicists - even Edward Teller - after Hiroshima.) This can be done gradually, following and expanding the model of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and establishing similar procedures to control intentional and accidental misuse of biotechnology, nanotechnology and other disciplines. This will necessarily require everyone - including the US - to give up parts of their sovereignty, but it is a necessary (i.e. not sufficient - just sine qua non) condition for the survival of the Civilization.

Consider establishing a UW chapter of Student Pugwash USA (see http://www.spusa.org ):

"SPUSA's mission is to promote the socially responsible application of science and technology in the 21st century. .... While examining all sides of an issue, SPUSA increases students' ability to think independently about the issues that affect society -- issues that range from international conflict to environmental protection, from genetics research to civil rights. SPUSA focuses on the interplay that lies at the juncture of science, technology, and public policy. ..... SPUSA is guided by a respect for diverse perspectives and, as such, does not adopt advocacy positions on substantive issues."

SPUSA chapters exist at Carnegie Melon, Cornell, Harvard, John Hopkins, MIT, Princeton, Stonybrook, UCLA, .... it could be very useful to have an active chapter at UW!

I agree with the broad meaning of the Premise (see the top of this page), with two caveats:

1. The time estimate for the onset of the predicted "downward spiral" (if we don’t accomplish the restructuring within three decades) may turn out to be a little too definite. Recall the infamous predictions of the famous Professor Ehrlich (and others).
2. "Sustainable future" assumes "a future". If we fail to address the Basic Problem, there may not be much of a future for human civilization.

Summary: Carl Sagan and the Grand View of Civilization(s) (from The Pale Blue Dot):

And the final metaphor: Big Bang as bonfire, with Civilizations as shortlived sparks from the ashes, isolated in time and space …. Do we get to deserve the name "homo sapiens" which we so expectantly gave to ourselves ?

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Note: for a discussion of the role of Music in all this, see http://www.phys.washington.edu/~vladi/music.html